Chase Anderson, & Dr. Geoff Dilly
The rocky intertidal zone is a dynamic ecosystem with fluctuations of multiple environmental stressors during tidal cycles including temperature, wind, and emersion. Long term biological and environmental monitoring provides insight into how intertidal communities respond to these cycles, including during extreme events. Climate change has increased the frequency of these extreme events (e.g. heat waves), making it critical that we understand the biological impacts to predict community composition in the future. We have consistently surveyed sessile species and collected temperature data at two sites on Santa Rosa Island, Skunk Point and Bechers Bay, since 2015. A total of 20 point intercept species plots (100 counts per plot) split across four zones (low, mid, high, and splash) have been co-located with iButton thermochron temperature loggers to correlate species coverage with thermal conditions at each plot. In addition to temperature logging, wind data was collected from NOAA’s offshore buoys and low tide emersion was predicted by comparing the known plot heights with local tide data. On top of this, satellite data from NOAA provides chlorophyll and par readings for our two sites. When combined together, these covariates and percent coverage values can be turned into correlative and predictive models that provide valuable information on rocky intertidal conditions. Established correlative models give insight into how species trend with different covariates, while predictive models can hold immense value in their power to inform both scientists and policymakers of the potential effects of climate change as time moves forward.